STREETSCAPE PROTOCOL
NYC GROUND-FLOOR RETAILEST. 2026
— FILE · 001 · AUTHORITY
Twenty years reading NYC streets. The default signals every credit check misses.
Operator. Observer. Underwriter of the layer institutional capital cannot see.
Author of the Streetscape Protocol diagnostic framework. Writing weekly on NYC ground-floor retail default risk, corridor fragility, and the revenue signals brokers do not track.
​↓ Q1 2026 TRACK RECORD
6 / 6
Protocol flags confirmed by closure or lease termination within the forecast window.
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Six operator-level default signals raised between November 2025 and February 2026. Six confirmed outcomes inside the 12-month horizon. No false positives.
SOURCE · PROTOCOL ACTIVE VENUE DATASET · N=420+
↓ THE FRAMEWORKS
01
Quiet Vacancy
06 / 06
A tenant current on rent whose revenue has already collapsed. Reads as occupied in every standard dataset.
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EARLY WARNING · 9–12 MO LEAD
02
Default Red Zone
Rent-to-Revenue above 18%. Twelve-month survival probability under 20% absent revenue recovery.
THRESHOLD · R2R > 18%
03
Algorithm Tax
Platform dependency above 35%. 78% default rate inside that cohort.
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CRITICAL · PLATFORM DEP > 35%
04
Tuesday Test
Off-peak revenue share below 8% signals a missing local-utility base.
CRITICAL · < 8% WEEKLY REVENUE
05
Hollow Dining Room
High occupancy masking low per-cover spend. Traffic without yield.
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REVENUE DIVERGES FROM FOOT TRAFFIC
06
Acquisition Decay
Discovery-led traffic drops 8 to 14 months post-launch without a loyalty base.
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HYPE HALF-LIFE · 8–14 MO POST-LAUNCH
— PRESS —
